In his NY Times article, War and Cheap Oil: A Second Look, Matthew L. Wald writes:
"According to James A. Placke, a senior associate with Cambridge Energy Research Associates, an energy consulting firm, Iraq was producing nearly 3 million barrels of oil a day before the United States invaded in 2003, and today it produces about 1.5 million barrels, about one-third of which is used internally...
One factor, not caused by the war, that everyone recognizes is pushing up prices is a growth in demand from India and China. Still, Mr. Placke argued, the effect of that demand on prices has been magnified by the depressed level of Iraqi production."
It is unclear where Mr. Placke of CERA obtained this information, since Iraq's production during the 10 years between 1996 and 2005 was never "nearly 3 million barrels of oil a day." The peak of production was no more than 2.58 million barrels at day, and this in 2000 (see table, below).
Iraq oil production in millions of barrels/day (various sources)
|
|
1996 |
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
|
BP,
Statistical Review of World Energy, 2006 |
0.580 |
1.166 |
2.126 |
2.541 |
2.583 |
2.376 |
2.035 |
1.339 |
2.010 |
1.820 |
|
EIA, Monthly energy
review, July 2006, Tbl 11.1a |
0.579 |
1.155 |
2.150 |
2.508 |
2.571 |
2.390 |
2.023 |
1.308 |
2.011 |
1.877 |
|
IEA, Monthly Oil
Market Report |
0.58 |
1.15 |
2.11 |
2.52 |
2.57 |
2.36 |
2.01 |
1.32 |
1.99 |
1.81 |
In fact, according to the 2004 World Energy Outlook from the IEA, Iraq's capacity was estimated to be no more than 2.5 million barrels a day:
"The near-term prospects for oil production in Iraq remain very uncertain. Output has recovered since the war in 2003, but not as quickly as expected. Disruptions caused by acts of sabotage to vital facilities have become more frequent in recent months. In May 2004, production fell back to 2.1 mb/d, well below Iraq's estimated sustainable capacity of 2.5 mb/d, after an attack on the pipeline feeding the Basra Oil Terminal. Iraqi industry sources now target exports of 2.2 mb/d to 2.3 mb/d by the end of 2004"
Clearly, Iraq's oil production is "down", but not nearly as far as Mr. Placke would have us believe. Is this more good news from CERA?
Submitted to Energy Bulletin, 8 January 2007, unpublished